Continuous observation of industrial changes is more valuable and meaningful.
In September 2021, the loading capacity in Ferrous lithium phosphate increased by 309.3% year-on-year, and the proportion increased from 34.8% in the same period last year to 60.5%. The ternary battery increased by 45.6% year-on-year, but the proportion dropped from 63.6% in the same period last year to 38.9%. (According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance)
Ferrous lithium phosphate has demonstrated faster speed and penetration rate, and its market share has exceeded three yuan for several months in a row. If we consider that almost all the energy storage batteries in Ferrous lithium phosphate are used in China, then the market share in Ferrous lithium phosphate is even larger.
In the noisy environment of lithium battery technology route, the return and reversal of Ferrous lithium phosphate not only reflects the changes of the ecological pattern of lithium battery industry, but also reflects the future direction of upstream and downstream game in the industrial chain.
Old aristocrats delayed by subsidy policy
Lithium iron phosphate battery, relying on mature technology, has comparative advantages in cost, safety and cycle times, and its energy density and low-temperature performance are constantly improved through group technology, and it has traditional advantages in energy storage, commercial vehicles, construction machinery and other fields.
These fields, as means of production, have strict requirements on cost, safety and tolerance for energy density, which is precisely the relative advantage of Ferrous lithium phosphate.
All along, the disputes in Ferrous lithium phosphate are mainly about passenger cars.
In fact, Ferrous lithium phosphate still has a certain market position before 2016. However, with the increase of the weight requirements of energy density and cruising range in China's new energy vehicle subsidy policy after 2016, the policy subsidy guides new energy vehicles, especially electric passenger cars, to reuse ternary batteries, thus achieving the absolute leading position of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited ternary batteries in the field of passenger cars.
During this period, BYD, as a loyal fan of Ferrous lithium phosphate, was also forced to launch ternary batteries, which was regarded as "forcing good women to engage in prostitution". This is also why BYD must later launch blade batteries to make up for the lack of electrochemistry in Ferrous lithium phosphate through physical structure design, so as to challenge ternary batteries.
Therefore, the outstanding performance of ternary battery in domestic passenger car field in the past few years is related to the orientation of national subsidy policy. With the gradual withdrawal of subsidy policy, this interference factor is gradually eliminated, and the industry demand returns to market orientation.
Wuling Hongguang is a typical annotation. Its low-price strategy abandoned the subsidy dependence from the beginning, and batteries can be selected according to the market-oriented strategy. Ferrous lithium phosphate with higher cost performance became the standard, with battery capacity of 9.2kWh and 13.8KWh respectively, and cruising range of 120Km and 170Km respectively, which basically met the daily needs of target groups, with outstanding cost advantages and finally became an explosion.
At the beginning of 2020, Tesla also began to try Ferrous lithium phosphate, the same 450Kg battery pack, ternary battery can be equipped with about 76KWh (battery life is about 670Km), and Ferrous lithium phosphate can be equipped with about 55KWh (battery life is about 468Km). As a matter of fact, Ferrous lithium phosphate has a cruising range of 468Km, which can already meet the needs of target users, and has market viability, and finally has been verified by the market.
Demand explosion under cost pressure
This year, stimulated by downstream demand and expectation, the price of upstream materials of lithium battery has generally increased, with lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide rising by about 260%, ternary positive electrode rising by about 80%, Ferrous lithium phosphate rising by about 130%, and negative electrode materials, electrolyte, PVDF and so on also rising sharply.
The price of upstream materials has risen, resulting in the overall rise of lithium battery cost. Under the pressure of upstream cost, downstream car manufacturers began to pursue lithium iron phosphate batteries with higher cost performance.
According to recent media reports, Tesla has ordered 45GWh lithium iron phosphate battery from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited next year based on the Ferrous lithium phosphate provided by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited in Model 3 standard endurance edition, and there are additional plans.
In addition, as a loyal fan of ternary battery, multinational car manufacturers have begun to accept Ferrous lithium phosphate, and Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen and Ford have indicated that they will use Ferrous lithium phosphate in some models.
Among the new car-making forces, Tucki has started to use lithium iron phosphate batteries in P7 models, while Nezha will also carry lithium iron phosphate batteries in the new U Pro models.
From BYD to Tesla, from Wuling Hongguang to Tucki P7, from the new force of car making to the multinational automobile giant, the continuous promotion of lithium iron phosphate battery in the field of passenger cars is the recognition of its comprehensive "cost performance ratio" such as cost, safety and maturity.
Strong blessing of head lithium battery
So far, it is not difficult to understand the return and reversal of Ferrous lithium phosphate in the past year. In the trend of marketization, head lithium battery enterprises will naturally not turn a blind eye.
In addition to being the leader in ternary batteries, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is also quite powerful in Ferrous lithium phosphate, and its market advantage is even greater than ternary batteries. In 2020, the installed market share of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited Ferrous lithium phosphate will be 58.9%, while the overall installed market share will be 48.06%. On the basis of the original commercial vehicles, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited lithium iron phosphate battery is increasing its promotion in the field of passenger cars and energy storage, and its market advantage will be further expanded.
BYD is a staunch supporter of Ferrous lithium phosphate. Last year, it introduced blade batteries, which improved the competitiveness of the whole Ferrous lithium phosphate industry. Wang Chuanfu bluntly said in June this year that "BYD blade battery pulled Ferrous lithium phosphate back from marginalization with its own efforts!" This year, it has helped BYD's electric vehicle sales all the way, demonstrating BYD's strategic vision in the evolution of battery routes.
On the basis of ternary batteries, honeycomb energy has also increased its layout in Ferrous lithium phosphate. Recently, L600 short-blade lithium iron phosphate battery cell went offline in mass production. The first generation model was 184Ah, which adopted lamination technology with more than 4,000 cycles. Combined with CTP's new matrix battery pack, it adopted battery constant temperature and low temperature endurance without attenuation technology, which further improved the energy density and low temperature performance.
In addition, the lithium battery giants in Korea and Japan, which are known for their ternary batteries, also began to seek Ferrous lithium phosphate. At present, SK and LG have indicated that they are developing Ferrous lithium phosphate to meet the demand of multinational car companies for lithium iron phosphate batteries.
From 1 to N in the lithium battery industry, the application scenarios are gradually diversified, which promotes a hundred schools of thought contention of technical routes. From cobalt-free batteries to solid-state batteries to sodium ion batteries, different technical routes are looking for their own market space.
This year, under the background of the rising price of raw materials in the upstream, lithium iron phosphate batteries are accelerating to penetrate into the passenger car field, especially the middle and low-grade or entry-level passenger cars, and the wider application scenarios have also become the key to enhance the market position of Ferrous lithium phosphate.
Looking forward to Ferrous lithium phosphate's performance next year.
Source: Mr Jiang Jing's capital circle